Tuesday, November 13, 2012

BC's Labour Market Forecast November 2012


VANCOUVER, BC, Nov. 12,2012/ Troy Media/ – The choppy pattern of B.C.’s labour market recovery continued in October as estimated employment fell to the lowest level since July, following two months of gains.

Provincial employment contracted by 10,900 persons (0.5 per cent) from September to an estimated 2.317 million persons, led by a signify cant drop in full-time employment of 16,200 positions (0.9 per cent). Goods-sector employment, particularly in manufacturing and utilities, led the decline while service-sector employment edged higher.

October’s sharp employment decline should not be interpreted as severe labour market erosion. Monthly growth deviations are common and reflect temporary labour market disruptions and sampling variability in the estimation process. Nonetheless, it is clear that a sluggish and uncertain economy, evident in lower business confidence and weak retail activity, home sales and export trends, is delaying workforce expansion on the part of employers.
While average employment was still up about 1.8 per cent from the first 10 months of 2011, gains have been negligible since early in the second quarter. Growth in full-time employment – the backbone of annual employment strength this year and up 3 per cent on a year-to-date basis – has also recently eased.

Total hours worked in the economy, which provides an alternative measure of real labour activity, looks to have crested in the third quarter. B.C.’s provincial unemployment rate held within the band observed through most of 2012, easing to 6.7 per cent from 7 per cent in September, as the labour force participation rate fell.

We forecast employment growth to average 1.7 per cent this year, and rise by only 1.4 per cent in 2013. The unemployment rate is forecast to average 6.8 per cent this year and ease slightly in 2013.

Lower Mainland-Southwest
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were neutral. Employment edged was unchanged over the latest three month period. Steady employment coupled with population-induced growth in the labour-force pushed the unemployment rate to 7.1 per cent, up 0.4 percentage points from three months prior.

Vancouver Island-Coast
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment rose by 4,200 persons (1.1 per cent) over the latest three month period. Employment growth and steady labour force generated a drop in the regional unemployment rate to 5.8 per cent, down 0.4 percentage points from three months prior. While the unemployment rate is relatively low, it understates the weakness in the regional labour market. The labour force participation rate is below 60 per cent, which is down from norms of above 63 per cent from 2006 – 2010. The low participation rate suggests a significant number of unemployed workers have become discouraged and left the labour market.

Thompson-Okanagan

The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Employment fell by 3,510 persons (1.3 per cent) over the latest three month period.

Kootenay
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment rose by 1,430 persons (1.9 per cent) over the latest three month period. Positive employment trends have fuelled a rebound in the regional participation rate in recent months, which as lifted the unemployment rate to by 0.9 percentage points to 7.8 per cent in October relative to three months prior.

Cariboo
The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment grew by 1,490 persons (1.7 per cent) over the last three month period. Labour force expansion was exceeded by employment growth, pushing the unemployment rate down 0.5 percentage points to 7.3 per cent.

North Coast-Nechako
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Employment fell by 530 persons (1.4 per cent) over the latest three month period. A retrenchment in the participation rate contributed to a steeper decline in the labour force, pushing the unemployment rate down 0.3 percentage points to 11.3 from three months prior.

Northeast
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Regional employment rose by 620 persons (1.6 per cent) over the latest three month period. Employment gains pushed the regional unemployment rate down to 3.8 per cent, down 0.5 percentage points from three-months earlier.
| Central 1 Credit Union

allvoices

No comments:

Post a Comment

Your comment will appear after moderation before publishing,

Thank you for your comments.Any comment that could be considered slanderous or includes unacceptable language will be removed.

Thank you for participating and making your opinions known.